8DC FX Weekly Outlook.
The US Markets will be shut today July the 4th for Independence day celebrations.
However, this week will be interesting, as we will see the release of the latest FOMC minutes and a number of Fed speakers, which will have the market guessing as to what the next US rate rise will be 0.5% or 0.75%.
The main data focus will be Fridays release of June’s NFP which is expected to show a payroll increase of 270,000, with the unemployment rate of 3.6% unchanged from the previous month.
This week will see some fairly important data including PMI’s and Retail sales. However, investors are far more likely to focus on what ECB head Christine Lagarde and her colleagues have to say on future interest rate moves, as the ECB prepares to change its easy monetary policy after July.
The only things that are likely to significantly move the JPY, is either a change in policy from the BOJ, or market Intervention by the MOF (ministry of finance). You need the first to happen, before the second becomes successful.
So this weeks Japanese data will be of interest, but not unlikely to move markets.
Not much in the calendar for the UK this week, although tomorrow the Bank of England will present its Financial Stability Report. There will be a number of BoE speakers including Governor Andrew Bailey. The market will be very interested in how he plans to deal with rampant UK inflation and a looming recession. Most think he is up s*** creek.
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