March 16 2022
There is no doubt in my mind that if Russia had not waged war on Ukraine, the FOMC would be putting up US Interest Rates by 0.5%. So, 0.25% is all we are going to get today.
As this is all priced in, the market moving event will be FOMC Chair Powell’s press conference. The market wants to know how aggressive this tightening cycle will be.
EURUSD failed to hold onto its gains yesterday, and resistance remains in the 1.0980/1.1000 area. If 1.1000 can be broken the EUR can look to target 1.1040/60.
Support is currently found at 1.0920 which if broken opens up a drop to 1.0860 and possibly the recent low at 1.0820. Look for direction to come from Powell’s words.
Gold continues to look somewhat shaken and is clearly not the one way safe haven/war bet many traders were thinking it was. This morning there is some support found on dips to 1912/10 if broken you could see a drop to 1900/1898.
Immediate resistance is at 1924/26, and if broken the next target area will be 1834/36.
With all the focus on the Fed tonight, it is easy to forget the Bank of England who will likely hike UK Interest rates 0.25% at their meeting tomorrow.
The GBP is trading between support at 1.3020/1.3000, and resistance at 1.3080/1.3100.
A break of resistance at 1.3100 would see 1.3130, and then 1.3180/1.3200. However, if 1.3000 gives way expect a drop to 1.2960 and possibly 1.2920.
USDJPY remains close to its recent highs and resistance at 118.40/50. Although, we saw a dip to 117.80/70 yesterday the Dollar looks overbought still.
If resistance holds at 118.50 then I would expect another correction towards 117.70 which if broken would allow a drop to 117.20. Above 118.50 will see 118.80/119.00
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