8DC FX Analysis

March 14 2022

D1 USDJPY

USDJPY broke resistance on Friday, and this morning trade there continues to be an impressive show of US Dollar strength.

The FOMC is expected to hike rates by 0.25% this week in a belated effort to contain inflation. However, with the war in Ukraine forcing prices higher nobody would be surprised to see US inflation print at, or close to 10% in the coming months. The FOMC seem to have lost control, and may have to raise rates more than expected to tame US inflation.

The dollar is closing in on 118.00. However, you should find resistance at 118.20/30. Right now, it is hard to pick a top with such a powerful up move. Although we should be due a correction some time soon.

First support is going to be found 117.30/20 and if broken convincingly, you could see a drop to the pivot point at 116.40

D1 GBPUSD

The Pound is suffering from the overwhelming USD demand that emerged on Friday. This is despite the Bank of England’s hawkish stance on UK inflation. It may be that the GBP is a better buy against the likes of the JPY or EUR.

GBPUSD could find some support at the psychological 1.3000 Level this morning, however if broken you will see a drop to 1.2960 and possibly 1.2920 in extension.

Resistance is found at 1.3060/70 and if broken more buyers will be found again at 1.3130/40.

D1 EURUSD

EURUSD suffered also on Friday and the single currency plunged towards 1.0900 support. If we break down here then you will see 1.0860 and possible 1.0810 in extension.

Resistance is now found at 1.0980 and if the EUR can break here then I would expect 1.1030/40 to be the target

D1 XAUUSD

Gold has lost a little of its shine to the USD as the market prepares for a US rate hike. However, it is difficult to feel comfortable being short of Gold, while the threat of an escalation to the dreadful war being waged by the Russian President in Ukraine persists.

Support is found this morning at 1970 and if broken you will see 196260, and possibly 1952 in an extended sell off.

Resistance is at 1979/80 and if broken 1996 will be the target, and possibly 2004.

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Published by Neil Callard

Forex Trader and Educator. 30 years trading experience, of which 20 years was market making in major currencies in large international financial institutions.

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