February 24 2022
Trading forex and metals during war time is difficult and risky for most traders, however, it can produce moves that take us to extremes that are not normally Justified by economic fundamentals. The panic of safe havens are usually unwound in the following days trade.
This time it may be different, as an aggressive Russia threatens peace in Europe. Already condemned by the UN, it seems to me that it will be difficult for Russia to back down from the hole it is digging for itself.
USDJPY has managed to hold onto support at 114.50 despite safe haven demands. However, if broken you will see a test of 114.10 and 113.60 as a target.
The Dollar needs to get back above 115.20 to lift the downside pressure. Break back here and you could see 115.50 and possibly 115.80.
Gold went vertical on the news of the Russian invasion of the Ukraine. It is probably overbought and needs to correct. However, increasingly unpalatable headlines make it difficult to short the yellow metal.
Resistance is at 1948 a break here would see a move to 1954 and possibly 1960.
Buyers are found on dips to 1940 however a break down here would see a target 0f 1932 or 1924 in extension.
The Pound has become a victim of the flight to safe havens as it lost ground to its safe haven peers the JPY, USD, and CHF.
These haven flows easily took out the strong support at 1.3500/1.3490 and is currently languishing just above 1.3430 support. A break here would open up a test of 1.3360.
To lift the downside pressure the Pound needs to break back above 1.3500 resistance, and target 1.3540. Failure to do so would be seen as quite bearish in the short term.
The EUR also suffered from haven flows breaking support at 1.1290 and 1.1260 to trade down to 1.1210. Traders will be encouraged by the Euro’s bounce, but it needs to break back above 1.1280 to provide some relief from the sellers.
Support is at 1.1200 and if this level breaks the target is 1.1140, however if the EURUSD can recover 1.1280 you will see further gains to 1.1320 possibly 1.1340.
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