February 14 2022
Geopolitical tensions look to be the dominant influence on forex trading at the start of a new week. All eyes will be on Russia and Ukraine, hoping that good sense prevails in avoiding conflict. The safe havens JPY, CHF, USD and Gold are the going to be in focus.
The EURUSD has support at 1.1340/30. However, this remains under threat while the price is below 1.1380/90. If 1.1330 is broken expect further weakness to 1.1300 and 1.1280.
If the price can break back above 1.1390, it would target 1.1420/30.
The rush to buy the safe haven JPY broke support at 115.80. This will now become an area of resistance, and while the price remains below this level there is a risk of more downside pressure targeting 115.20/10 support.
If this support break the dollar will drop to 114.70 and possibly 114.50.
However, If the dollar breaks back above 115.80 expect further gains to 116.10 and 116.30.
Gold is a major beneficiary of the increase in tension between Russia and Ukraine.
This sharp up move has further potential, provided that tension remains or indeed escalates. However, if things calm down. the result will be some long position liquidation.
Support is found initially at 1852.00 and if broken it will target 1846 and 1842.
Resistance in the 1864/66 area, if this gets taken out, expect a test of 1870/72
GBPUSD has struggled to stay above 1.3600, and although it failed on Friday the GBP may not be done with the upside, just yet. While the GBP is above 1.3540 it has the potential to break back above 1.3600 and target 1.3640/50 or 1.3680 in an extended up move.
To confirm that a top may be in place, the GBP needs to break below 1.3540 and attack strong support at 1.3510/1.3500.
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