February 4 2020
Today the NFP for January is released, the expectations are low for a good number after the disappointment of the ADP report on Wednesday. Which probably means if there is going to be a surprise, it will be for a better number than currently anticipated.
The ECB finally did a U turn, and decided that high Inflation may stick around longer than they originally thought. The market reaction, or overreaction to this was the equivalent of an immediate Interest rate hike!
The EURUSD now faces some strong resistance at 1.1480 which if broken will see the single currency target 1.1500 and 1.1530.
Support is at 1.1400/1.1390 and 1.1350
The Bank of England hiked UK rates by 0.25% a move that everyone expected. However, the forex market was hoping for 0.5% which was somewhat optimistic, given the UK’s current economic situation.
This morning resistance remains at 1.3620/30 if broken the target will be 1.3660 and then 1.3690 in extension.
Support will be found at 1.3560 and 1.3500.
The JPY was sold heavily against the EUR which helped to push up USDJPY. The market seems to have forgotten for the moment, the geopolitical risks of 100,000 Russian soldiers on the Ukrainian boarder. Preferring to buy into the idea of ECB rate hikes!
The US Dollar has this morning is trying to get back above 115.00 with immediate resistance at 115.20 and then 115.60.
Support is going to be found at 114.60/50 and 114.10.
Yesterday, Gold recovered well from testing support and finished the day more or less unchanged. I find it somewhat troubling that there is widespread USD weakness, and still Gold remains subdued. Gold Bulls need to see a break higher soon, or we risk deeper tests to the downside.
This morning resistance is at 1810.00 and if broken the market will look to target 1816 and possibly 1820.
First support is going to be found at 1796 and then 1788
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