December 15 2021
EURUSD has spent much of the past 3 weeks consolidating since hitting a low of 1.1190 on the 24th of November, any rallies have stalled between 1.1340 and 1.1380 running out of steam quickly, as the overwhelmingly bearish sentiment continues to weigh on the EURUSD.
Today the FOMC will meet and expectations have grown over the past few weeks where the market expects them to at the very least quicken the speed of tapering, to finish at the end of Q1 2022. In doing so this will usher in faster interest rate rises with most analysts expecting 2 hikes sometime in 2022.
Should tonight turn out to have a more bullish USD outcome I would be looking for a break of 1.1220/1.1200 for a move lower to target 1.1160/50. Should the selling extend to 1.1100/1.1090 I would be surprised at such an extreme outcome, as much of tonight’s outcomes have been priced in.
However, if the Fed disappoints the market by not being hawkish enough the risks to the upside would probably be a retest of 1.1320/30 on route to strong resistance at 1.1380/1.1400. Above 1.1400 I think is unlikely and would prove a great entry point for USD bulls.
My preferred scenario is for a drop to 1.1160/50 followed by consolidation towards year-end and then further USD strength into early 2022. But I would say that, as I am bullish on the dollar.
Good Luck trading and do use sensible risk management.