August 6 2012
Todays big question is will the dollar soar after NFP, or will it be another US employment let down? either way point & figure charts show you the possible key battlegrounds.
EURUSD made a failed attempt to break 1.1900, and has since given a sell signal at 1.1840. If NFP is USD supportive expect a test of 1.1780/60. A break here and trade at 1.1740 would likely signal a deeper sell off towards 1.1700/1.1680.
A weak NFP headline would see the EURUSD back above 1.1840/60 to test 1.1880/1.1900 a break of 1.1900 would target 1.1940/60 in extension.
The GBPUSD has made a strong recovery from the low of 1.3580, however it failed to break 1.3980/1.4000 and has been in a consolidation pattern trading 40 pips either side of 1.3910 for most of this week.
The downside risk from a strong NFP would put 1.3860/40 support under pressure, a break down here would see the GBPUSD slide to 1.3800/1.3780 or even 1.3740 in extension if the USD gets some real momentum.
On the upside GBPUSD has struggled to get back above 1.3940/60. However, if broken I would expect the next resistance to be at 1.3980/1.4000. I think you need to see a really bad NFP headline for the GBPUSD to break above 1.4000.
The AUDUSD looks to have been unsuccessful in its attempt to break above 0.7400. After a failed break you usually see a drop to test support. In this case AUDUSD support is at 0.7320/0.7300. The upside failure makes the AUDUSD particularly vulnerable to a strong USD NFP headline. If we do see a strong number a break of 0.7300 would likely see the AUD heading south towards 0.7220/0.7200
The outlook for the AUDUSD would only brighten if it can sustain a break above 0.7400 which would set a target at 0.7440/60.
Good luck trading today and what ever you do ensure you use sensible risk management.