June 21 2021
The EURUSD is sitting just above support at 1.1840, having taken a beating from the apparently hawkish US Federal Reserve over the past few days. The EURUSD now finds itself on a one-way street lower. The situation is probably merited as the FOMC is likely to taper and move towards a normalisation of monetary policy long before the ECB.
Technically it is unusual for straight-line trades to continue longer than a few days. So profit taking bouts may allow us to find better levels to sell the EURUSD. However, my ideal Entry of 1.2040/60 seems far with such negative sentiment surrounding the EUR.
First, you will find support is at 1.1840. then 1.1790. a break here would likely see an attempt at 1.1720/1.1700. The low of March 31st.
Resistance will be found at 1.1890 and then 1.1940.
The EUR is not just suffering from a strong US Dollar. It is getting crushed by a surging JPY, being bought as the safe-haven currency of choice. This trade I see as being something of a temporary phenomenon. Which will only last as long as the stock markets are being sold. Coupled with the remarkable drop in longer-term US bond yields.
The Pivot support of 130.60 getting broken this morning signifies another leg lower towards the next support of 129.60/80 is possible.
However, an immediate break back above 130.60/80 which is now resistance, would improve the outlook for the EUR. This would signal a further continuation move to 131.20. Raising the possibility that a bottom is in place.
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