As usual, we start Monday full of energy and optimism.
However, it is worth looking back at last weeks action.
I have 2 takeaways from the last 5 trading days the first came on Thursday and it highlights the dilemma that traders are facing.
Vice-Chair Quarles of the US Federal Reserve is saying no change in monetary policy until full employment is achieved. However, as we saw from Friday’s data inflation is uncomfortable high. Sell the Dollar until the Fed says Taper, or buy on the unfolding inflation story?
This week is full of interesting data climaxing on Friday with May’s NFP.
Today we start the week with Chinese PMI released early today, The CNY has strengthened considerably this year. However, an Ex PBOC official warned that the CNY strength was unsustainable. Some verbal intervention from the Beijing authorities friends.
Tuesday The Reserve Bank of Australia are holding their monetary policy meeting, where they are not expected to join the gang of 3 policy hawks, Canada, NZ, UK. So no gang of 4 yet.
Tuesday will also give us Euro Zone CPI and the US ISM for Manufacturing in May, which if robust could give the USD a lift.
Wednesday Australian Q1 GDP updates, as we are close to the end of Q2 no worries!
Thursday we will see Australian Trade numbers for April, US ADP employment report for May and US ISM for Services. Bank of England Governor Bailey is speaking to the UK Parliament.
Friday is the big one for the markers after Aprils big miss, we are looking forward to fireworks from the May NFP. But let’s talk about that later this week. 5 days is a long time in Forex!
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