May 21st 2021
Two or three interesting things for the Euro trader today, firstly it is PMI Friday, the only 2 that really matter are the German Manufacturing and US numbers. If the US numbers fall short of expectations, the EURUSD is going to finish the week on a higher high.
If the German number disappoints then we might get a dip to buy. If it beats expectations then the USD might be in trouble, or more trouble I should say.
Christine Lagarde is speaking at a ECOFIN meeting, about what I am not sure, but watch out anyway.
EUR/USD
Back knocking on the door at the top of the range, break 1.2240/50 and we will be looking at a run to 1.2280/1.2300
Any data that disappoints will see a drop to support initially at 1.2190/1.2200 or a deeper correction will be welcomed by dip buyers at 1.2160/1.2170.
EUR/JPY
The EUR has found it hard going to make progress higher, it looks like it needs to see a correction lower and some consolidation, it has come a long way on the back of JPY weakness due to rising US Bond Yields, But if those worried are easing then the JPY could appreciate.
The EUR needs to break 133.40 to make progress towards 134.80.
However, a failure to make the break higher, will sooner or later see some weakness to test 132.80 where a break would allow the EUR to drop further to support in the 132.10/20 region.
EUR/GBP
The EUR had its chance yesterday to break 0.8640 and failed. after a failure we tend to see a reversal back to the recent support which is at 0.8600/10.
However with UK April Retail Sales posting a 9% increase month on month I would think that its quite likely we see a deeper sell off to 0.8570.
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