May 14th, 2021
Today’s data focus is going to be US retail sales for April, the market consensus is for sales to grow by 1% . I do wonder if that number is a bit conservative, considering that the US economy is rapidly reopening. Another number that misses or exceeds expectations, will get the markets rocking and rolling again.
The EUR is sitting just above support at the pivot of 1.2060. While this level holds firm, we expect the EURUSD to move back above 1.2100 and look to target 1.2140.
A clear and sustained break below 1.2060, would target the support area at 1.1980/1.2000.
I think that the market is looking to try 1.2060 as the high inflation story is gaining support.
Maintaining its Bullish pattern, although resistance at 132.60/80 has proved difficult to break.
Dips have become shallow, with support to be found at 132.00, it is probably a matter of time before 132.70/80 breaks to open a run up beyond 133.00.
However, remember if the price fails to break resistance, it always returns to last support. In this case 132.00 or 131.60 if we get a deeper correction.
The EUR briefly managed to break the top of its 1.5440/1.5640 range with a run up to 1.5680.
However the EUR slipped back below 1.5640 and really needs to break back up and retest the highs, to make further gains towards an upside target of 1.5740.
Failure to recover would see a drop to support at 1.5560/40 or even 1,5480 in extension.
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